Category Archives: POLITICAL RISK

Forecasting Political Instability

What signals indicate the onset of severe political instability, the worst-case scenario being state-collapse or civil war, with enough lead-time to take preventative action? This question was asked at the end of the Cold War leading to the creation of … Continue reading

Posted in POLITICAL RISK | Leave a comment

Global Trends

Intelligence analysts have long debated whether their discipline is an art or a science.  For the most part, forecasting remains an exercise in structured analytic reasoning. Analysts have to factor in past and present dynamics to sketch out possible and probable future trends, to … Continue reading

Posted in POLITICAL RISK | Leave a comment

Geopolitical Risk Analysis

Geopolitical risk analysis is the attempt to quantify internal and external risks to the state by assessing the local, regional and global security framework. A range of interdependent factors affect political and strategic stability including local and transnational actors, economic and political geography, regional … Continue reading

Posted in GEOPOLITICS, POLITICAL RISK | Leave a comment