Author Archives: David Hurrell

About David Hurrell

Intelligence Analyst iJet. Keeping an eye on the Middle East and North Africa. Occasional, unedited, blogger. Views and incoherent ramblings my own. Please get in touch using the contact page. Twitter = @geopolrisk

Forecasting Political Instability

What signals indicate the onset of severe political instability, the worst-case scenario being state-collapse or civil war, with enough lead-time to take preventative action? This question was asked at the end of the Cold War leading to the creation of … Continue reading

Posted in POLITICAL RISK | Leave a comment

Global Trends

Intelligence analysts have long debated whether their discipline is an art or a science.  For the most part, forecasting remains an exercise in structured analytic reasoning. Analysts have to factor in past and present dynamics to sketch out possible and probable future trends, to … Continue reading

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Geopolitical Risk Analysis

Geopolitical risk analysis is the attempt to quantify internal and external risks to the state by assessing the local, regional and global security framework. A range of interdependent factors affect political and strategic stability including local and transnational actors, economic and political geography, regional … Continue reading

Posted in GEOPOLITICS, POLITICAL RISK | Leave a comment

Iran: Rouhani’s election

Iran’s Guardian Council confirmed the reelection of incumbent President Hassan Rouhani on 30 May. Elections were held on 10 May, with Rouhani receiving 57% of the vote, beating the conservative Ebrahim Raisi – the ayatollah’s pick – who received 38.5%. … Continue reading

Posted in Middle East | Leave a comment

Burkinabe militants

Militancy has been on the increase in northern Burkina Faso since late 2016. Over a dozen attacks have been attributed to or claimed by a new militant group, Ansaroul Islam, and operational in the Soum province which borders Mali and Niger. The group is … Continue reading

Posted in Briefs, West Africa | Leave a comment

Nigeria: the Boko Haram attack on Magumeri

Nigerian local media reported that dozens of people died in a Boko Haram Shekau-faction led assault on the town of Magumeri, which lies roughly 50km north west of Maiduguri, on 15 and 16 March. The attack was an interesting one … Continue reading

Posted in Nigeria, West Africa | Leave a comment

Kenya: Politics and security

The Republic of Kenya faces an uncertain risk outlook ahead of the 2017 general elections on August 8. President Uhuru Kenyatta faces a probable 2nd term win; his powerful Kikuyu base has been expanded to include the vote of Deputy … Continue reading

Posted in Blog, Kenya | Leave a comment